These days, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi doesn’t recognize the Vladimir Putin he used to pal around with. The two were quite the odd couple back in the early 2000s, hugging and partying each time they met. It almost looked like Italian charm would convert the old KGB agent. The criminal invasion of Ukraine this month changed all that.
Many political leaders who know Putin, like Berlusconi, have been shocked by the personality change that Putin has undergone. He was menacing enough in years past, allegedly poisoning and imprisoning opposition leaders, but Europeans were able to deal with him rationally. The Germans, Italians, and Hungarians even put themselves under his control by relying on Russian oil and gas pipelines. Italy buys 45% of its energy from Russia. Politically, many European right-wing leaders, including Italy’s Matteo Salvini, who saw Putin’s Russia as a beacon of traditional White/Christian values, are now distancing themselves from his naked aggression.
There may be a physiological cause for Putin’s irrational behavior or he’s just faking one. Some think being on the cusp of 70 may have sparked an internal panic to achieve his Greater Russia delusions before his birthday in October. Most madmen want to conquer the world before their 60s. Putin’s goals were set back by the 2014 ousting of his puppet regime in Ukraine. His seizure of Crimea in response to that revolution was the beginning of his obsession for conquest. That seizure prompted among Western sanctions excluding Russia from the G-8 economic group.
At the time, though out of office, Berlusconi denounced the exclusion. “[It] contradicts the long and weighty diplomatic work carried out by Italy and the governments I preside over to fully include Russia in the assembly of Western democracies. It was I, in fact, in ’94 who first invited President Yeltsin [Putin’s predecessor] to the G7 in Naples and in 2001 to transform the G7 into the G8 with President Putin in Genoa”.
Was Berlusconi deluded then or did the exclusion further feed Putin’s obsessions? At this stage, the world is clearly dealing with a flaky Russian who is now rattling a nuclear option. Even Russians, who are subject to a military draft, have hit the streets protesting his lunacy. How will this end?
NATO members, including Italy, are finally understanding President Donald Trump’s warning to them in 2018. At a NATO meeting, which can be seen on YouTube, Trump warned our allies that they are too dependent on Russian energy and spend too little on military defense. Even now, the Italians still spend under the 2% (actually 1.6%) threshold required of the allies. Ukraine, not a NATO member, spends 3%. The U.S. spends 4%.
With that budget, Italy (population 60 million) would be hard-pressed to fight Ukraine (population 44 million), let alone Russia. Both of those nations still have military conscription. Italy and almost all NATO countries depend on volunteers. Italy has 200 tanks to Ukraine’s prewar 2,100. Italy has some 400 artillery pieces to Ukraine’s 4,700. Italy has only 21 rocket launchers compared to Ukraine’s 630. The Italian air force is another matter. Italy has 221 fighter planes to Ukraine’s 100. At sea, Ukraine might still have only one frigate, while the Italian Navy possesses an offensive battle fleet of 16 ships and 8 subs.
It is easy to understand why European nations are hesitant to engage Russian aggression militarily. Prime Minister Mario Draghi has recently committed to sending 3,000 troops, 12 aircraft, and 5 naval vessels to Romania and Latvia. His government will also send non-lethal military equipment to Ukraine, including protective devices for soldiers and de-mining equipment.
Italy and Germany have the most to sacrifice from heavy sanctions on Russia, especially in energy supplies. But, believe it or not, even the U.S. under President Biden has been importing on average 538,000 barrels per day of oil and oil products from Russia. We are all financing Putin’s war!
Then there’s the financial option. The UK, EU, and the U.S. have agreed to disrupt Russian transactions in the global banking system. At first, Italy balked but has now agreed. Palazzo Chigi (Italy’s White House) tweeted this: “Italy has made no requests for carve-outs on [financial and material] sanctions. Italy’s position is fully aligned with the rest of the EU.”
Whether this tough talk actually pans out will depend on the heroic president of embattled Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. Will he survive the next few days? He responded this way to Biden’s offer to evacuate him: “I need ammunition, not a ride.” -JLM
It has been clear for many of us who Putin is. Let us hope Italy wakes up and
finds a gas source from another country, to return to its values. When commerce comes before doing the right thing, there is serious trouble. All of Europe needs to wake up, the lessons of the past mean if you give a bully an inch they will take all they can.
Italy’s petroleum giant ENI has discovered a vast natural gas field off of Egypt. I believe they have made a deal with the Egyptians but it will take a few years to exploit the field and pipe it to Italy.
Let us not forget that Italians and Italian culture are highly respected in Russia. Italian architects helped designing Moscow and Saint Petersburg since the beginning of the Czar rule. Among the many others, architects Marco Ruffo and Pietro Solario built the iconic Palace of the Facets (Kremlin).
Even Italian modern pop culture is very popular in Russia (and in Easter Europe), as it was not the subject to censorship. Italian singers from the 70s and 80s are very well known among those who grew up in the Soviet Union. This is honestly refreshing for Italians like me living in the U.S. When I meet Russians here, they appreciate Italy and never bring up the M**** (like some Americans do).
We are seen very differently.
This may also put in context the relationship between Berlusconi and Putin, which has been ridiculed by the international press. There is more than two alpha men who happened to like each other. The relationship between the two countries go way back.
This is a tragic experience not only for Ukraine but for Europe, and the world. Italy went through more than its share of horrors during and after WWII, of which the average Italian American really knows little about, and now buried by a time warp as the older generation dies off. Even so, there will be a domino effect due to more refugees and displacement and the impact of Russia trying to re-establish the Iron Curtain. In many ways, Russian foreign policy has never changed from Czarist times and it’s worth recalling that Stalin made a pact with Hitler to destroy and divide Poland….and bomb it into the Stone Age… it’s now doing the same thing, by itself in Ukraine. Ironically on my last trip to Calabria, and visiting family, in some of the coastal cities, the real estate signs were in Italian and Russian. I found out a sizable community is growing in the area, buying up beachfront houses and now large villas. Hopefully, the ruble will be worthless, and those homes along with the new oligarchy will disappear but I doubt it…….
Buongiornio Ken
Thank you for your comments, especially regarding the real estate market in Calabria.
Some of our Italian American clients, mostly from the South who are acquiring title to unclaimed family property in Italy would be interested in knowing of the Russian interest in Calabrian real estate.
Cordiali saluti
Anthony Alioto
http://www.italianlaw.net
San Francisco office
As an FYI, on my last trip to the area around Scalea, on the coast in the Prov of Cosenza so many of the apts. and condos were purchased by Russians. Wonder what will happen now? Interestingly, too prior to Brexit, the Brits were purchasing summer homes not too far from Scalea. all these are coastal beach areas, my favorite is Diamonte. I had thought it would have been a boon to the local economy…now I have my doubts…the global economy being such as it is….