The war in Ukraine has become a touch & go situation for the West.  The war conjures up all our nightmares:  Stalin reincarnated in a “democratic” Russia, Europeans killing each other over borders, refugee crises, entangling alliances, fears of nuclear war, and world hunger hangs in the balance.

European leaders feel powerless to even achieve a cease fire.  An otherwise optimistic problem-solver like Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi now says of Vladimir Putin, “I am beginning to think that those people are right when they say ‘It is useless to talk to him, it’s just a waste of time’.”

Italian leaders like former PM Silvio Berlusconi used to have a bromance with Putin, but no longer recognizes his new personality.  To Italian technology and luxury industries Russia was a cash cow; now it’s a pariah.  Italy, like its European Union partners, has entered into a new era not unlike another 1939.  Suddenly, former neutrals like Sweden and Finland want to join NATO.  Putin’s strategic goal of a buffer zone between Russia and NATO may have just bit the dust.  He may soon face a new super-NATO led by the United States – just as Stalin provoked its birth in 1949.

Last week, the U.S. Senate interviewed the newly proposed Supreme Allied Commander of NATO: General (4-stars) Christopher Cavoli.  Barring any surprises, Cavoli is a shoe-in.  (Dwight Eisenhower was the first to man that post.)

He is particularly qualified as a specialist in Eurasian affairs and speaks Russian as well as French and Italian.  His father was also a U.S. Army officer who immigrated from Italy.  The younger Cavoli was born in Germany during his father’s assignment there.  His European childhood included stays in Rome, Verona, and Vicenza.   He came by his commission via ROTC and is an infantry/airborne combat veteran.  His college major was biology, completing a senior thesis on “The Effect of Earthworms on the Vertical Distribution of Slime Molds in the Soil.”  (Worms, slime, and soil certainly sound like infantry material!) 

Cavoli will be replacing Gen. Tod Wolters, of the Air Force.  Prior to Wolters, the NATO Supreme Commander was another Italian American, General Curtis Scaparotti (2016-2019).  Scaparotti was a West Point grad.  During his term at NATO, Russia had already seized the Crimea and Scarparotti was tasked with sizing up Russia’s further ambitions at a dicey NATO-Russia Council summit in 2018.  The news wasn’t good, so the Trump Administration continued to send lethal weapons to Ukraine – a godsend as it turned out.

So, how goes the war?  Ukraine admits that Russia holds 20% of its territory.  Thus far, one estimate has Putin losing 6 generals, 30,000 soldiers (killed/wounded/captured?), 1,300 tanks, 600 artillery pieces, 50 helicopters, hundreds of warplanes, and a very expensive naval missile cruiser.  These figures haven’t been verified, but even lesser estimates are staggering for an invasion only 100 days old.  Now all eyes are focused on Ukrainian farm products, which Russia is blockading from export on the Black Sea.

As many as 20 million tons of grain are awaiting export inside Ukraine – the world’s fifth-largest producer of wheat.   Gen. Cavoli was asked about this and praised Germany’s rail agency for enabling transport of Ukraine’s grain over land into Western Europe through its “Berlin train lift.”  But, he concedes that for sheer volume ships must be allowed to leave Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa.  Therein lies the rub.

Odesa has been mined by the Ukrainians and Putin want to trade grain shipments for lifting sanctions against Russia.  In effect, Putin has applied a “no sail zone” on the Black Sea – an international waterway – while we choose not to impose a “no fly zone” over Ukraine (a sovereign country).

Complicating things further, Turkey has the power to close access to the Black Sea impeding both the Russian Navy and Western shipping.  It’s called the Montreux Convention of 1936, signed by all the great powers except Fascist Italy, which probably wanted no limits on navigation.  Italy finally signed on in 2009. 

Gen. Cavoli will be in the thick of these things. -JLM